China’s Key Cities Witness Real Estate Market Recovery During Traditional Peak Season

March and April are traditionally the peak sales season for China’s real estate market, known as the "Golden March and Silver April" period. Recently, obvious signs of recovery have emerged in the real estate markets of multiple key cities, from Beijing and Shanghai to Nanjing and Hangzhou, with both new and second-hand housing markets showing increased vitality, reflecting positive changes driven by policy support and market demand.

In Beijing, the second-hand housing market has witnessed a notable upturn. Over a weekend in April, real estate agency stores in the Wudaokou area of Haidian District received a steady stream of inquiries and business transactions. The area, a traditional advantage zone for school district housing, usually sees a sales boom in March and April each year. Additionally, after nearly three years of price adjustments, high-quality second-hand properties in the area now offer prominent cost performance, attracting more potential buyers. Similar vitality has been observed in the Caishikou area of Xicheng District, where superior geographical location and well-known benchmark projects have drawn considerable customer attention.

Shanghai’s second-hand housing market is equally thriving. Shanghai Real Estate Trading Center official website data shows that on April 11, the number of online signed transactions of second-hand housing (including commercial properties) reached 1,632 units, setting a new high for a single day in the past five years. Data from Shanghai Lianjia Research Institute indicates that 31,000 second-hand housing units were traded in Shanghai in March, a 6% increase compared with March last year and a 37% rise from January this year. The number of property viewings, a leading indicator, increased by 28% from January, laying a solid foundation for subsequent transactions and reflecting a gradual recovery in market confidence.

Industry insiders note that despite the sustained popularity in key cities’ real estate markets in April, obvious differentiation remains. The second-hand housing market outperforms the new housing market, where demand remains relatively weak. Moreover, transactions in the second-hand housing market are mainly concentrated on low-priced properties, while transactions of medium and high-priced properties remain lackluster, with the housing replacement chain yet to be fully unblocked.

In contrast to the prosperous second-hand housing market during the "Golden March and Silver April" period, the new housing market has not seen a large-scale increase in transactions. Affected by a high base, demand diversion and project launch rhythm, the new housing market’s performance during the peak season is not prominent. National Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January to March, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 195.25 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, with the decline narrowing by 3.1 percentage points compared with January to February. However, some new housing projects have performed well, particularly high-quality projects in central urban areas and suburban projects with advantages in school districts, transportation and supporting facilities at relatively friendly prices.

Looking ahead, experts believe that the real estate market recovery in key cities is expected to continue. At present, second-hand housing prices in many areas of hot cities have undergone in-depth adjustments, and rigid demand is being fully activated with policy support. Rigid demand has also driven some improvement demand, improving the market cycle. For example, transactions of second-hand housing below 3 million yuan in Beijing and Shanghai, and below 2 million yuan in Guangzhou have rebounded more significantly, with prominent demand from renters converting to buyers.

To sustain the recovery momentum, experts suggest that local governments should further sort out existing policies, address blockages in housing consumption, and increase policy support in areas such as provident fund use, housing subsidies and second-hand housing transfer with mortgages. In addition, public facility gaps in areas with concentrated housing demand should be filled in a timely manner to improve key supporting facilities that affect housing expectations. It is also expected that market differentiation will intensify, with high-quality properties in prime locations likely to stabilize and rebound first, while old properties in suburban areas with insufficient supporting facilities may recover more slowly. Overall, the market centered on livable housing needs will be more sustainable.