China Releases Agricultural Outlook Report, Forecasting Steady Development in Next Decade

To implement the key tasks of the 2026 Central No.1 Document of “strengthening agricultural product market monitoring, early warning and information release”, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released the China Agricultural Outlook Report (2026—2035) in Beijing on April 20. Guided by the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and compiled by the ministry’s Market Analysis and Early Warning Team, the report focuses on 20 types of major agricultural products including grain, cotton, oil and sugar, Xinhua News Agency reported.

The report reviews the market situation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and 2025, and forecasts the production, consumption, trade and price trends over the next 10 years, especially for key nodes of 2026 and 2035. It points out that China’s comprehensive production capacity of grain and important agricultural products will be significantly enhanced, with a more improved diversified food supply system and a new stage of high-level dynamic balance between supply and demand.

Yield per unit area has become the key to grain increase. The report predicts that in 2026, grain and oil output will reach 716 million tons and 42.04 million tons respectively, up 0.2% and 2.6% year-on-year. With the popularity of the “less oil, more beans and milk” campaign, edible vegetable oil consumption will decrease by 0.2%, while soybean edible consumption and milk consumption will both rise by 0.6%.

By 2035, grain output is expected to reach 753 million tons, with a 6.3% increase in per unit yield driven by high-standard farmland construction, seed industry revitalization and modern technologies such as intelligent agricultural machinery. Xinhua News Agency noted that intelligent technologies like AI and drones have been widely applied in agricultural production, transforming traditional farming from “relying on the weather” to “knowing the weather to work”.

Li Ming, chief analyst of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ Market Analysis and Early Warning Team, said the tight balance between grain supply and demand will be a long-term trend, but pressure will ease. “Grain imports are expected to drop to 115 million tons by 2035, a 25.5% decrease from the base period, with soybean imports falling to 82.55 million tons,” he added.

The report also forecasts that high-quality agricultural products will command better prices in the next decade. With rising production costs, grain prices will fluctuate upward, while the impact of the international market on domestic prices of cotton, oil and sugar will weaken as domestic supply capacity improves.

AI application in agriculture will accelerate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, helping build an efficient monitoring and early warning system to address information asymmetry. China will rely on high-quality domestic agricultural development to cope with international market uncertainties, ensuring stable prices of important agricultural products, China Economic Net stated.