China’s hog prices remain sluggish amid prolonged market bottoming

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs monitoring data shows that China’s hog and pork prices continued to decline in the third week of May. The national live hog market price stood at 10.12 yuan per kilogram, dropping 0.4 per cent month on month, while the market pork price fell 0.4 per cent to 19.98 yuan per kilogram. Wholesale market tracking across 200 major outlets recorded an average pork wholesale price of 14.76 yuan per kilogram, down 0.5 per cent monthly and 28.5 per cent year on year.

The current downturn has lasted far longer than traditional hog price cycles. A standard hog cycle lasts roughly three years, driven by adjustable breeding scale and supply changes. The ongoing cycle features shorter upward phases, extended downward adjustments and a double peak and double trough structure. After hitting the first peak in October 2022 and a secondary high in August 2024, hog prices have stayed in a prolonged bottoming phase with lower peak levels and faster declines compared with previous cycles.

Breeding losses have become widespread across the industry. High feed costs further squeeze profit margins. Regional data reveals significant operational pressure for farmers, with per-head losses exceeding 600 yuan and the hog-grain price ratio staying within the first-level early warning range. Wholesale markets report sufficient pork supply with falling transaction prices, while retail prices show mild and uneven declines across different regions due to circulation and operational costs, as well as refined product pricing differences.

Structural supply and demand changes are the core drivers of the prolonged market downturn. On the supply side, breeding capacity remains ample despite mild reductions in productive sows. By the end of 2025, the national sow inventory remained above the normal benchmark. Improved pig breeding efficiency and rising industry productivity offset inventory reductions, keeping overall hog supply at a high level.

On the demand side, pork consumption continues a structural decline. Diversified meat choices including beef, mutton and aquatic products have gradually replaced part of pork demand. The proportion of pork in China’s total meat consumption and per capita household pork consumption have maintained consecutive declines. Traditional seasonal consumption bonuses have also weakened, eliminating conventional peak-season price growth.

The shift toward large-scale farming has slowed market capacity clearance. Large-scale breeding enterprises boast solid capital chains and strong risk resistance, maintaining stable production even during industry losses. This delays the elimination of inefficient capacity and extends the market bottoming cycle.

Relevant authorities have rolled out targeted regulatory policies to stabilise the hog market. Multiple central and local frozen pork reserve purchasing operations have been launched this year to balance market supply. The revised national hog production regulation plan has lowered the standard inventory of productive sows to guide orderly capacity reduction and optimise market supply and demand matching.

Market indicators show initial signs of stabilisation. The continuous decline in sow inventory and falling newborn piglet numbers will gradually ease market supply pressure. Industry analysis indicates that capacity adjustment effects will become more prominent in the second half of the year. Hog prices will witness narrow fluctuations and gradual recovery, with noticeable upward momentum in the fourth quarter, bringing balanced benefits to both farmers and consumers.